Lacy Hunt Predictions

Economist, Hoisington Investment Management

Track Lacy Hunt's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

13 forecasts 13 pending
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13 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Lacy Hunt Inflation Rate Inflation will be higher and more volatile over the coming decade, with a secular upward trend
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[5:30] We're going to have higher inflation. We're going to have uh greater volatility in inflation. The trend in interest rates is going to be higher. And uh we're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2036-08-20 pending
Lacy Hunt Treasury Yields Treasury bond yields will trend higher over the coming decade
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[5:39] The trend in interest rates is going to be higher. And uh we're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate and uh basically a complete reversal of what we saw over the previous three decades from let's say 1990 to 2020.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2036-08-20 pending
Lacy Hunt Treasury Yields Real interest rates will rise due to the imbalance between capital demand and savings supply
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[37:27] the real rate is going to rise. And the reason it's going to rise, Adam, is because of what we just talked about. that we have this imbalance between the demands for physical capital and the supply of saving. So, it's going to drive the real rate higher. Inflation is going to go higher

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2036-08-20 pending
Lacy Hunt Treasury Yields The risk premium on Treasury debt will rise as interest expense makes it politically impossible to address the deficit
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[40:08] the last element which has not been a problem but is the is the risk premium. And and the thing that that I believe is going to change the risk premium is the fact that the interest expense is making it almost impossible from a political standpoint to address the deficit which means that the deficit direction is worse and worse.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2036-08-20 pending
Lacy Hunt US National Debt The US federal deficit will be larger next year than the current ~7.5% of GDP, and federal debt will rise toward 130% of GDP
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[18:09] my outlook is for even sign a greater uh number uh next year and in the years to come and and federal debt is is already approaching 120% of GDP GP and it's it's on its way to 130% of GDP.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2027-10-15 pending
Lacy Hunt US Economy US potential economic growth rate will decline from 3.5% to around 2–2.5% due to deteriorating demographics and labor force trends
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[38:46] the potential growth rate is not going to stay at three and a half. It's going to gravitate down toward two or two and a half.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2031-08-20 pending
Lacy Hunt US Birth Rate The US birth rate will continue to decline, worsening the already negative demographic trend
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[43:22] the birth rate which is which is already in a major downtrend will become even weaker at the same time that we're aging

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2031-08-20 pending
Lacy Hunt US Standard Of Living US standard of living will stagnate over the coming decade, a reversal of the 1990–2020 trend
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[5:46] We're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate and uh basically a complete reversal of what we saw over the previous three decades from let's say 1990 to 2020.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2036-08-20 pending
Lacy Hunt Treasury Secretary Intervention The Treasury Secretary's bond market intervention will provide only a short-term benefit and will ultimately reduce long-term growth prospects
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[35:57] I believe will be the case with yesterday's uh intervention by the Treasury Secretary but ultimately they reduce the long-term growth prospects

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-20 2026-12-31 pending
Lacy Hunt Inflation Rate Inflation will gradually move upward from its prior 1.5–2.5% range into a 3.5–4.5% range over the coming years.
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[31:49] the inflation rate which for a long time was between 1 and 1/2 to 2 and 1/2 is now gradually moving upward. And we're going to see it move up over time into a 3 and 1/2 to 4 and 1/2% range.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending
Lacy Hunt Interest Rates Long-term Treasury yields will trend higher over the foreseeable future as all three components of the Fisher equation (real rates, inflation expectations, and risk premium) rise.
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[36:54] all three components of the Fisher equation point to higher rates. Now I not going to be steady, the environment is going to be very volatile. This is not going to be a subdued a subdued period like what we experienced from 1990 to 2020. It's going to be more volatile.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending
Lacy Hunt GDP The economy will experience a stagflationary environment of higher prices and lower real GDP growth for the foreseeable future.
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[23:46] I think that the general period will be one because what what's going to be happening is that the aggregate supply curve is going to be moving inward. The demand curve is downward sloping, so you're going to what you're going to do is you're going to get higher prices and lower real growth.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending
Lacy Hunt Recession Recessions will occur more frequently and be harder to avoid in the post-globalization era compared to the 1990–2020 period.
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[29:27] you could have recessions from time to time. And and it's going to be more difficult to to avoid them, I believe, than during the favorable in the during the period of globalization.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending