Fed Funds Rate Predictions

Browse Fed Funds Rate market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

16 forecasts 14 commentators 50% accuracy 5 correct 5 wrong 6 pending
16 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Trey Reik Fed Funds Rate The Fed's next move will not be tightening interest rates
See quote
[8:08] given current debt levels, the things that we've all studied for 20 years and given oil at 100 and malinvestment and shaky credits, uh there is absolutely no chance the Fed's next move is going to be tightening.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-03-31 2026-12-31 pending
Larry McDonald Fed Funds Rate The Fed will go from three expected cuts to zero cuts and possibly rate hikes later in 2026 as inflation increases
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[8:37] We're going to go from three K uh three cuts expected to zero and maybe even hikes coming in later in the year as inflation really bounces

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-03-17 2026-12-31 pending
David Hay Fed Funds Rate The Fed will not cut interest rates much
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[27:52] I don't think the Fed's going to cut much. I think that's a bit of a contrary opinion right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-02 2026-12-31 pending
Steve Hanke Fed Funds Rate The Fed will not change interest rates at the March meeting.
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[35:29] 92% no change. Okay. So that's that's where I am. I'm I'm with the market. I'm with the market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-02-18 2026-03-18

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an 11-1 vote to keep rates unchanged — exactly as predicted. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm)
Danielle DiMartino Booth Fed Funds Rate Kevin Warsh will cut rates by 50 basis points at the June Fed meeting as his first move as Fed chair.
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[10:41] I think that that could be a good way for him to um for worse to come into office if indeed Powell does stand pat uh through the end of his term.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-02-03 2026-06-30 pending
Komal Sri-Kumar Fed Funds Rate The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026
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[6:28] So my expectation more rather than less. I'm going to expect one more cut in January to take place.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-12-19 2026-01-31

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its January 27-28, 2026 meeting, not cutting by 25 basis points as predicted. The FOMC voted to maintain the target range unchanged, pausing after three consecutive cuts in the fall of 2025. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm)
Sam Burns Fed Funds Rate The Fed will make one or two more rate cuts over the next 6 months, but not a lot.
See quote
[4:43] I think the Fed is kind of a bit stuck in terms of its ability to respond uh policy-wise uh as aggressively as they might otherwise. I think that inflation is telling them one thing and labor market is telling them something else. So, we're going to get, you know, maybe one or two more cuts over the next 6 months, but not a lot.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-23 2026-05-23 pending
Adrian Day Fed Funds Rate The Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points this year, with 75 basis points also possible
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[5:14] my base case would be 50, but I don't think 75 is off the table

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-09-16 2025-12-31 correct
Lobo Tiggre Fed Funds Rate The Fed will probably throw the dollar under the bus by making easy money easier to support the labor market
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[10:00] The Fed's tools are completely inadequate to a stagflationary environment. It's they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. So what do they do? I I can't tell you what they will do. Uh I'm guessing that they will probably heir on the side of throwing the dollar under the bus. that meaning loosen make easy money easier to support the labor market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-08-29 2026-08-29 pending
Thomas Hayes Fed Funds Rate The Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points (two 25 basis point cuts) for the rest of 2025, with an optimal range of 75-100 basis points total.
See quote
[10:45] I think we've got to go at least two. And I think that's all we're going to get. Uh we should probably do 75 to 100 basis points.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-08-06 2025-12-31

The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 (September, November, December), each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points. This satisfies the prediction's minimum of 'at least two cuts' (50 bps) and lands squarely within the stated optimal range of 75–100 bps. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
Bob Elliott Fed Funds Rate The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at most once in 2025, with zero to one cuts being the most likely outcome
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[37:21] I mean, maybe they cut once, but it's not, you know, this is not um I think a lot of people really popped up on this idea that that there's going to be, you know, a shadow fed chair and that the the Fed's going to be pushed into uh easing materially. Like, I'd probably describe it this way. If we get anything more than roughly, you know, zero or one cuts, um it's the type of conditions that you sure don't want to be holding equities in.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-30 2025-12-31

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025 (starting in September), ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%. The prediction of 'zero to one cuts' was incorrect. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
Lobo Tiggre Fed Funds Rate The Fed will likely make no rate cuts this year instead of the expected two cuts
See quote
[26:10] They're expecting two cuts this this year. Is that is that reasonable for you? I think there's a good chance we get no cuts.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-18 2025-12-31

The prediction that the Fed would make no rate cuts in 2025 was wrong. The Fed actually made three consecutive quarter-point cuts starting in September 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
Gareth Soloway Fed Funds Rate Fed will cut rates three times by year end
See quote
[16:46] I think right now they're pricing in two rate cuts the remainder of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if we have three by year end

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-10 2025-12-31

The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 — in September, October/November, and December 10, 2025 — ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, exactly matching the prediction of three cuts by year end. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
David Rosenberg Fed Funds Rate The Fed will scramble to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025
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[37:21] I think I think let me just add by the way uh the Fed will be scrambling to cut interest rates in the second half of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-13 2025-12-31

The Fed did cut interest rates in the second half of 2025, beginning in September 2025 and making three consecutive quarter-point cuts (September, October, December), lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75%. However, the cuts were measured and deliberate, not a 'scramble' — they were debated and even contested within the FOMC, with the December cut passing only 9-3. The prediction's framing of 'scrambling' implies urgency or panic that didn't materialize, but the directional call (cuts in H2 2025) was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
Danielle DiMartino Booth Fed Funds Rate The Fed will be forced to lower rates during summer 2025
See quote
[26:18] I think the Fed's going to be forced to lower rates this summer

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-09 2025-09-21

The Fed held rates steady throughout summer 2025 (June–August) and only cut at the September 16-17, 2025 FOMC meeting (effective September 18), which is at the very end of summer/start of fall — not 'summer' in the conventional June–August sense. The prediction of a summer rate cut was not literally fulfilled. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250917.htm)
Jeff Christian Fed Funds Rate The Fed will not change interest rates for at least 6 months
See quote
[20:02] I I think it's at least 6 months down the road.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-04-22 2025-10-22 wrong