Ted Oakley Predictions
Founder of Oxbow Advisors
Track Ted Oakley's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[9:20] yeah, I think it has more to go. I mean, it's like it hasn't ever gotten the level. Like, for example, uh when when the when the min gold miners hit such highs, we basically cut those in half uh right at the end of the year, beginning of January 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. And we did the same thing with silver. Same. We owned Heckla. We cut that in half on the silver miners because it it tripled in a year. And so, it was a thing to do. Well, all those have come back now, you know, and you have a lot of retail in those stocks. In energy, you don't have as much retail. They're not chasing those things. Uh, it's more of a steady climb where people are starting to realize that, hey, you know, we're we're going to need we're going to need this and it's going to no matter what, it's going to be a while before they get this thing resolved in terms of getting back to normal. Uh, it may never go back to normal for quite a while. So, I think you have to stay with energy in here for the time being.
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[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.
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[18:32] Well, I I would be surprised if silver didn't come down to between 50 and $60.
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[18:51] I'd be surprised if gold, you know, didn't come back to the low 4,000s
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[10:09] I think in 12 15 months from now which I think inflation will be back up again
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[16:53] I think in generally inflation is going to be sustainable though. between three and four.
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[25:35] I don't think they'll get anywhere close to hitting the numbers there. They're looking at 16% the estimates out there for increased earnings in 26. I don't think there's a a chance they can make that.
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[32:35] it could be significantly higher in the next three to five years but let's just say it's higher a hundred dollars a barrel maybe$1und whatever
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[11:20] I think eventually you you will have higher inflation. Maybe not here in the next two or three months just because of sort of the base effects you're looking at, but when you get into, you know, adding these tariffs on things that happen, you should you should get more inflation. I I would guess that you would.
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The August 2025 CPI rose to 2.9% year-over-year (up from 2.7% in July), with economists and an NBER study attributing roughly 0.7 percentage points of the increase to Trump's tariffs — confirming both that inflation rose due to tariffs and that the rise came after the predicted 2-3 month delay. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/inflation-breakdown-for-august-2025.html)
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[12:01] we think inflation over the next decade will yield somewhere between three and a half and five.
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[21:03] we feel like that that's the next that's the next move you'll get from oil over the next 12 months it'll perk up.
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Graded early 2026-03-22. CL=F rose from $62.69 (2025-05-19) to $98.62, up 57.3% with a period high of $119.48, well above the start price. Oil clearly rose over the 12-month window.
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[23:52] I don't think they're finished. Now, that's not to say, though, and I think people should be aware of this, that if you had a 3500 gold price and gold corrects to 2,900, let's say, you know, that's fairly normal after you get a really big move in gold. And and what you don't want to do in these sorts of things, if you believe in it over the next 5 years, which we do, you don't want to get shaken out on that down tick
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[22:26] I think you'll have one more turn in here where the where that 10year will go below four or somewhere in there
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[24:13] I think between now in mid year that that's when you would get this breakdown in in in the yield probably because the economy the market whatever maybe all of it together but later on I'm talking about in the latter part of this year and then end of next year your Inflation Rate goes back up again
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[24:31] we felt all along it's going to average for the next decade it's probably going to average three and a half or 4% on average that means sometimes you'll have it at five or six
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[30:37] I think in the long run I think uh you know you're going to get that and then also if you get inflation you'll get a lower dollar too I think I think I think those things will press against us here
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