Michael Gayed Predictions
Publisher of the Lead-Lag Report
Track Michael Gayed's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:24] At some point, the free market will probably push the yen even lower. And that's going to be a real problem longer term for Japan, but they're going to try and prevent along the way.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[13:10] I do think the healthcare relative momentum is real. And speaking about deregulation, I think there's going to be a lot more deregulation coming on the healthcare space, which should benefit the sector because it's been left for dead for a long time, especially the biotech space for sure.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[20:19] Yeah, but you could break 5% for a moment in time. Sure. Could be a panic.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[7:01] I very short term I think and I've been saying this for the last two weeks I think we're due for an imminent VIX spike. Now, I don't know when exactly or what day, no different than the reverse carrier trade playing out August 3rd, August 5th of 2024, but um given the sheer volume on the call trading side, the leverage ETF launches, uh the sheer amount of overconfidence that I'm seeing on social media, the the margin debt that's being reported, I mean, everyone's extremely bullish into end of year
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed an 'imminent VIX spike' in the very short term, and the VIX did spike to $28.27 on trading day 11 (November 20, 2025), representing a 57% increase from the prediction date price of $18.01, which clearly constitutes a significant spike meeting the prediction's claims.
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[7:43] I do believe there is a massive tailwind that deregulation plays into the bullish narrative. Okay, that's why I launched the free markets ETF, FMKT. I believe that deregulation is a big big driver, has all kinds of implications on sector rotation, new leadership. Um, and that should be ultimately positive for equities
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[2:51] I think the dollar itself is probably likely to be in a sideways rangebound type of movement unless you have a real riskoff policy in case the dollar were to rebound.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed sideways rangebound movement, and the data shows a 4.2% swing from period low ($96.22) to period high ($100.4) with a final close at $98.28 (0.1% from prediction date), which constitutes moderate volatility within a roughly 4% range rather than true sideways/rangebound trading characterized by minimal directional movement.
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[3:32] typically around now into end of September that tends to be a pretty nasty stretch for markets and volatility tends to rise from here on going forward.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 'nasty stretch with rising volatility' from mid-August through end of September, but the market only declined 1.6% from the prediction date ($6449.15) to the period low ($6343.86 on Aug 20), then recovered to close up 3.7% by the target date, showing neither a significant market decline nor sustained volatility consistent with a 'nasty stretch'.
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[19:24] I would argue gold probably outperforms Bitcoin only because I do think at some point in the next 12 months, you're going to have another draw down and risk off period.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[3:32] Well, I think on the equity side, it's clear that the the play is the energy sector. So, I put out that post also yesterday. It's like we could see if this really gets to be bad, a repeat of 2022 where you had uh energy really diverge in terms of those stocks relative to the rest of the market. Energy I'm bullish on independent of the near- term because part of my deregulation thesis which factors into the FMKT free markets ETF is that deregulation benefits energy anyway particularly uranium names which are getting some good traction as we're speaking
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed energy sector would outperform the broader market in 2025, but XLE gained only 4.1% versus the S&P 500's 14.5% gain, meaning energy significantly underperformed rather than outperformed the broader market.
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[14:44] I actually think the dollar could surprise on the upside. Everyone and their brothers, sister's boyfriend's roommate is now bearish on the dollar. U everyone talks about the dollar going lower. Again, I tend to be a little bit more contrarian in my thinking. It wouldn't surprise me to see the dollar make a comeback, at least for a moment in time.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the dollar would 'surprise on the upside' and 'make a comeback,' which is a bullish directional claim. The period high of $100.4 on 2025-11-21 represents a 2.26% gain from the prediction date price of $98.18, confirming the dollar did rally during the period, validating the bullish outlook.
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[12:18] Um but I do believe gold very long-term probably does continue to trend higher. I just worry about those periods when everybody is talking about it.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[9:23] One of those implications is not just the rotation from large to mid and small, but I think you can make an argument that deregulation should make markets more volatile in general, right? I mean, free markets should be more volatile.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a rotation from large cap to mid and small cap stocks driven by deregulation. The Russell 2000 (small/mid cap, ^RUT) gained 19.3% while the S&P 500 (large cap, ^GSPC) gained 10.5%, demonstrating that mid and small cap stocks did outperform large cap stocks during the prediction period, confirming the rotation claim.
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[14:21] You can argue that financials in general look particularly interesting. Again, goes back to deregulation benefiting that part of the equity landscape.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed financials would 'look particularly interesting' due to deregulation benefits with a bullish sentiment; XLF reached a period high of $55.89 (13.0% gain from the $49.45 prediction date price), confirming the bullish outlook was correct.
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[15:48] I don't think gold is the way to play this because now I think there's manic uh optimism on gold and typically in margin calls the first thing that investors do is sell their winners as a source of liquidity. Gold happens to be one of the few winners left in this. So I think it's going to be a a place for selling pressure.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would face selling pressure and be a place for selling, but gold rose 12.9% over the period and reached a high of $3485.6, showing sustained buying pressure rather than the selling pressure predicted.
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[16:08] I think the only area to really be in you know likely is the area which everybody hates which again is treasuries and probably more on the long duration side. Everyone suddenly forgot that the pristine asset long duration treasuries tends to act like the best place to be when everything falls apart.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed long duration treasuries (TLT) would be 'the best performing asset class' during market stress, but TLT declined 2.3% over the period and hit a low of $80.30, failing to demonstrate outperformance as a 'pristine asset' that 'tends to act like the best place to be when everything falls apart'—the specific claim was not met.