Warren Pies Predictions
Founder of 314 Research
Track Warren Pies's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:04] rates are still going to come down this year
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[3:20] now we are we transitioned around the end of last year where we were saying okay in 2026 that ideal portfolio is is going to transition to an overweight and commodities and commodity related businesses uh to pair with your overweight equity position
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[3:47] The first part of the year we expect to be a Goldilocks environment where inflation is still tamed from those factors we talked about last time. Those three factors are still holding inflation down.
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[4:01] but we do see an economic reaceleration with the fiscal expansion due to the one big beautiful bill and uh in lower rates as well.
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[6:34] I think it's going to be about 670 close to 700 billion from the hyperscalers in 2026 capex. So that's almost like it's approaching 2 and a.5% of GDP.
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[10:09] when I do the numbers I think that mag seven buyback tax could very well be down 80 billion this year
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[15:59] which is out of what we could probably be getting 1.2 trillion of buybacks in total for S&P 500 this year. So, which is growth over last year.
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[31:32] we expected oil to bottom in Q1.
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[33:37] I think we're going to overheat later this year and commodities are hard to disrupt. If you're gonna if AI is going to go exponential, you need to own hardware in commodities
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