Steve Hanke Predictions
Professor of Applied Economics
Track Steve Hanke's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[5:50] So oil's going to go up in price because the the paper and futures markets will eventually catch the physical markets. The the physical markets up here, David, and the paper markets down here, right? And and eventually the paper market's going to be bug mugged by the physical reality and the price of of the futures will go up to match the physical.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[10:29] They're not going to crush Iran. Point number one and Iran will in with a high probability continue to control the strait and and that means that functionally it'll it'll be closed.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[21:33] I think this could be the death nail for sanctions. I think the sanctions regime will start coming off.
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[38:20] Yes, I I do. I I I I maintain that I think the top of the the cycle will be remember I I changed that from a point estimate of 6,000 to a range of six six to 7,000.
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[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.
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[19:52] I thought we had an inflation problem just around the corner and the inflation genie would never be put back in the bottle. That's that's what I thought.
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[27:39] We've already said that the price of gasoline has gone up about 50 cents on average in the United States in the last few weeks and and it will go up. It'll continue to go up because as you just said, we had a West Texas Intermediate crude hit a hit a 52- week high today.
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[45:53] the American public is very negative on this and I think the Republicans led by Trump will take a real beating in the in the midterm elections so there's a political the political fallout will be big
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[25:54] I don't think the Fed is going to be able to put that genie back in the bottle. meaning what what's that 2% or less? I don't think it's going to 2% or less.
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[32:41] I think it's going up. I think I think it's going it's going it's going up. It's going to it's going to drift up.
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[35:29] 92% no change. Okay. So that's that's where I am. I'm I'm with the market. I'm with the market.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an 11-1 vote to keep rates unchanged — exactly as predicted. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm)
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[32:43] I don't think this loosening will allow the Fed to get back the genie of inflation back in the bottle and get down to the target of 2%. I think that's the real problem and that's going to be a big problem for Trump
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[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.
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[38:43] that's good for hard commodities. So, keeps a secular bull market going in gold, silver, copper, platinum
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[9:55] So the the calls outnumber the puts by about a 2:1 margins and and that suggests that the consolidation around 4,000 it it's it's going up not not going down. It'll it'll hold at 4,000 and probably go up. The the options market is betting uh that it's going up from 4,000.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would 'hold at $4,000 and probably go up,' and the period high of $4,228.7 represents a 6.2% gain from the prediction date price of $3,979.9, confirming the bullish directional claim was correct.
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[18:31] I think the this secular bull market and gold that we've been in, David, will maybe end up at $6,000 an ounce, not 5,000.
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[37:50] Dollar is going to keep keep weakening and and get into my the the key the key dollar price is a dollar euro rate and and I think the fair value is 120 to 140 and and we're at about uh let's just look. look around 11718... So I think that the dollar will slip into the fair value range. It will it will go from 117 to weaken to 120 and and further into that range.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the Dollar would weaken and the EUR/USD rate would move from 117 to 120-140, but the DX-Y (Dollar Index) actually strengthened by 1% from 97.33 to 98.28 at the target date, with a period high of 100.4, meaning the dollar strengthened rather than weakened as predicted.
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[3:59] We are still in a downward trajectory for inflation and the reason for that is that inflation is always an everywhere a monetary phenomenon. So you have to look at what was going on a couple years ago with the money supply to get some idea of what's going to be happening with inflation today or tomorrow. And since the money supply two two and a half years ago was actually contracting, it would indicate that we'd stay on this downward trajectory.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Inflation rose from ~2.4% in early 2025 to 3.0% by September 2025 before falling to 2.7% by year-end, meaning it did not continue on a consistent downward trajectory as predicted — it moved higher mid-year before partially reversing. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)
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[28:31] So in the next year we shouldn't be concerned about doubledigit inflation or high single not double digit inflation maybe high singledigit inflation coming back. You know people have painful memories of 2020 and 2021. So
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[47:07] Now the real interest rate actually has gone up to about 1.7% or something like that. And I I think I think it probably will go up to, you know, like two and a half or 3% something in that zone.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The 10-year TIPS real yield (the standard benchmark for real interest rates) remained well below the predicted 2.5%–3% range throughout 2025. A November 2025 TIPS auction priced at 1.843%, and by end-of-year the rate was still around 1.8–1.9%, far short of the 2.5%–3% target. (https://tipswatch.com/2025/11/20/10-year-tips-reopening-auction-gets-real-yield-of-1-843-to-lukewarm-demand/)
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[17:20] I think the regime uncertainty will lead eventually to what? Looking ahead, it'll lead to a more serious slowdown and a recession in the United States. And with a recession, of course, you have topline revenues going down, margins going down, profits going down, and and you know, the stock market that the pees are going to come down.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the stock market would decline due to recession with falling revenues, margins, profits and P/E ratios, but the S&P 500 rose 14.7% from the prediction date ($5967.84) to the target date ($6845.50), with the period low only down 0.4% from the prediction price, failing to show the predicted decline.
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[0:15] What we're seeing is the onset of a slowdown that will eventually lead to a recession late in the year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The US economy did not enter a recession in late 2025. BEA data shows Q2 GDP grew 3.8%, Q3 grew 4.4%, and Q4 grew 1.4% — all positive, with no NBER recession declaration. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)
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[16:44] I think it it might even hit the Fed's target at 2% or maybe even a little below this year
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
US CPI inflation never hit 2% or below in 2025. The annual average was 2.6%, and the December 2025 year-over-year reading was 2.7%. The lowest monthly reading in 2025 didn't reach the 2% target.
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[29:43] Do you think that the worst is behind us for equities volatility? Oh, no. I I think things things are just warming up
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed volatility would 'get worse' and 'things are just warming up,' but the market experienced a brief dip of only 5.6% from the prediction date before rallying 26.6% to close the period significantly higher, indicating volatility did not materialize as a dominant feature and the bearish outlook was contradicted by strong market performance.