Matt Gertken Predictions

Chief Geopolitical Strategist, BCA Research

Track Matt Gertken's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

4 forecasts 4 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
  • Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
  • Submit corrections
4 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Matt Gertken U.S. House Of Representatives Midterm Election Outcome Democrats will win the House in the November 2026 midterm elections, gaining 20 to 40 seats.
See quote
[2:21] The House is a foregone conclusion. There's the midterm curse. It almost always is an anti-incumbent election. Republicans only have a two seat majority. Democrats are leading by 5 percentage points in the generic polling. And the president has a net negative 16% approval rating... we're obviously going to see the House turn. Probably 20 or 40 seats will shift in favor of the Democrats.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-26 2026-11-03 pending
Matt Gertken U.S. Senate Midterm Election Outcome Democrats will win control of the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections, outperforming current polling expectations.
See quote
[3:18] I would go uh and I have been saying all year that this is going to go in favor of Democrats... when we look at the trends, particularly those those statistics I mentioned earlier, how unhappy Americans are with the uh with inflation, with the incumbent government, uh with inequality, I think Democrats will pull it off... by the time we get to November 3rd, I think they will uh outperform and end up controlling the Senate to the surprise of the pundits.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-26 2026-11-03 pending
Matt Gertken U.S. Auto Tariffs On Canada Trump will probably not implement auto tariffs on Canada that were announced to take effect after the midterm elections.
See quote
[18:44] that also means that you're talking about not implementing those auto tariffs, which notice that he put those on January 1st after the midterm, and he probably won't actually do them.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-26 2027-01-01 pending
Matt Gertken Unemployment Rate Unemployment will rise and inflation will remain sticky from 2028 onward.
See quote
[9:30] unemployment rate is so low that it probably won't go much lower. So, if we're thinking about 2028 and beyond, you're probably going to have unemployment coming up and you're also going to have this sticky inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-26 2028-02-02 pending