Jim Welsh Predictions

Founder and author of Macro Tides

Track Jim Welsh's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

10 forecasts 2 correct 8 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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10 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Jim Welsh S&P 500 The S&P 500 could see a pullback in the near term due to weakness in AI-related stocks
See quote
[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-16 2026-04-16

The prediction claimed a pullback could occur in the S&P 500 due to AI stock weakness, and the period low of $6473.52 (trading day 43) represents a -6.7% decline from the prediction date price of $6940.01, confirming that a pullback did indeed occur during the target window.
Jim Welsh Russell 2000 The Russell 2000 will continue to work its way higher
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[5:47] I think the Russell 2000 is going to continue to work its way higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-16 2026-07-16 pending
Jim Welsh S&P 500 Any S&P 500 decline should be limited to between 3% and 7%
See quote
[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-16 2026-07-16 pending
Jim Welsh US Housing Market Housing prices will come down slowly but surely over the next few years
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[20:48] I think housing prices are in fact going to be coming down uh slowly but surely that will erode the confidence in the spending habits

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-16 2029-01-16 pending
Jim Welsh S&P 500 The stock market will enter a secular bear market sometime over the next window of time
See quote
[5:01] That said, there is a huge bifurcation in our economy in the sense of the bottom 50% of people have been under the gun for probably four years as the cost of living ramped up. Their incomes haven't kept up um pace with that. uh the top 10% of wage earners represent almost 50% of spending and they're deriving their confidence from what's happening in the financial markets namely the stock market uh and so forth. So you have this split screen if you will where the top segment of the uh economy is doing really well. They're kind of carrying the water for the rest of the economy. That's why I think if we see a protracted bare market, which is my expectation, David, sometime over the next window of time, we're going to enter a secular bare market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Welsh US Housing Market Home prices will decline over the next handful of years
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[15:51] I think home prices over the next handful of years are going to decline.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2030-12-31 pending
Jim Welsh S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally going into the end of this year and early next year
See quote
[29:27] My bet would be seasonality is usually very favorable. Um the selling pressure that we've seen hit some of the AI related stocks. Some of these stocks are down 20 30%. Um so my bet would be David is we'll see another rally as we go into end of this year early next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2026-03-31

The prediction claimed a rally going into end of 2025 and early 2026, and the period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 represented a +3.5% gain from the prediction date price of $6765.88, confirming the rally occurred during the predicted timeframe despite the price being lower at the target date close.
Jim Welsh Gold Gold will trade down to a price target of $3,750 in the near term
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[34:53] So, I think we're going to see near-term gold trade down close to 30 under 3,800. Price target is 3750.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2026-06-30 pending
Jim Welsh Treasury Yields The 10-year Treasury yield will reach about 5%
See quote
[39:08] the high in 2023 on the tenure was a 5%. I think we're going to go about 5%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Welsh US Dollar The US Dollar index will see a fairly significant rally over the next 12 months
See quote
[42:46] I think there's a chance that we're going to see a fairly significant rally over the next 12 months in the dollar index and some of it could be due to a liquidity squeeze

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2026-11-25 pending