Danielle DiMartino Booth Predictions
CEO of QI Research
Track Danielle DiMartino Booth's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[21:01] So basically what you're saying is more layoffs will happen before this gets better unless something dramatic changes because again we're not seeing the benefits that we were supposed to be seeing at this point from one big beautiful bill.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[33:09] So I would expect that we would have at a bare minimum a year from now a six handle on the unemployment rate.
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[27:31] I think the I think the labor market recession continues
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[28:28] I think that the recession that we're currently in might not be acknowledged for a few years, but
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[10:41] I think that that could be a good way for him to um for worse to come into office if indeed Powell does stand pat uh through the end of his term.
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[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.
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[6:18] potential chair WH if he's confirmed um will not necessarily be battling inflation, but battling its its evil stepsister, disinflation.
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[25:06] In other words, we could easily be looking at sliding right below the Fed's 2% target going into the new year with this gauge that I follow.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Inflation did not slide below the Fed's 2% target going into 2026. CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in January 2026, and December 2025 CPI was 2.7%—both well above the 2% threshold. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)
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[28:02] I think that a lot of the names in healthcare have been beaten up and I don't think that the aging of America is going to come to a screeching halt.
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[14:50] I would say that that investors should be very cautious about um about some of the froth coming out of the recent moves in gold and that they could see a continued consolidation there.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed 'continued consolidation' (a bearish claim of sideways/downward movement with caution about froth), but gold instead rallied 33.5% to reach a period high of $5586.2, representing a 40.3% gain from the prediction date price of $3983.7, which directly contradicts the consolidation thesis.
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[17:54] we're going to see home prices decline.
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[8:06] we will start to see the unemployment rate tick up.
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[12:11] So again, you know, we're we're at a 4.2% uh unemployment rate. That's about the cycle high. I would expect that that's going to continue rising.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in May 2025 to a high of ~4.5-4.6% by November 2025, before edging down slightly to 4.4% in December 2025 — confirming the prediction that it would continue rising over the course of 2025. (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate)
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[12:39] That is why we're expecting to see negative payroll prints starting with the next report.
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[26:18] I think the Fed's going to be forced to lower rates this summer
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady throughout summer 2025 (June–August) and only cut at the September 16-17, 2025 FOMC meeting (effective September 18), which is at the very end of summer/start of fall — not 'summer' in the conventional June–August sense. The prediction of a summer rate cut was not literally fulfilled. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250917.htm)