Cole Smead Predictions

Fund Manager, Smead Capital Management

Track Cole Smead's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

10 forecasts 10 pending
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10 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Cole Smead International Petroleum (Ipco) International Petroleum (IPCO) will deliver approximately 15% compounded annual returns over the next 3 years as the Black Rod asset reaches full production
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[14:16] we we looked and said okay over the next 3 years as this asset comes online on an EV performing barrel basis, we probably could make something like a mid- teens return. I think something like 15% compounded over the next 3 years to get to where Black Rod's fully producing these 30,000 barrels.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2029-10-13 pending
Cole Smead International Petroleum (Ipco) International Petroleum (IPCO) will grow to approximately 80,000+ barrels of oil production within roughly 7 years, becoming comparable in size to MEG Energy
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[15:09] They are going to do 30,000 barrels with Black Rod first and another 10,000 add-on. They will then rinse and repeat and do another 30,000 barrel project of Black Rod and add another 10,000 barrels. Okay? So they have an 80,000 barrel project in say I don't know 7 years or something like that... They're going to be another Meg.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2033-10-13 pending
Cole Smead Barclays Barclays will produce low-teens to 15% return on equity and will no longer trade below book value as a result
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[21:07] they're going to go out and produce what looks like low teens and maybe if they run the business more efficiently over time, maybe back to 15% return on equity. Now, if you can run low teens... things like this don't end up trading below book, particularly when you're buying back stock.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2028-10-13 pending
Cole Smead European Banks European banking consolidation will accelerate over the next 10 years, with major banks including Santander and Credit Agricole pursuing significant mergers or acquisitions
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[25:17] At some point in the next 10 years there's going to be a bank that wants to compete with the American banks globally both on a commercial consumer and commercial business but also like a capital markets business... Expect Santandere does something. Expect credit agricult.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2036-10-13 pending
Cole Smead Auto Trader Group (Auto.L) Auto Trader Group (AUTO.L) is undervalued at current prices (40% cheaper than prior highs) and will reward patient investors given its 50%+ returns on capital
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[27:15] I think this is a case where it's a very high return business... for a business that produce over 50% returns on capital, I don't mind paying that multiple at all. Now, to your point, it's 40% cheaper than it used to be.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2028-10-13 pending
Cole Smead US Economy The US economy could see a pickup even as risk assets experience a significant downturn, driven by a flight to Treasuries if hyperscaler capex spending ends
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[10:10] if we have a nasty bare market cuz the hyperscaling capex game ends. Um, are they going to buy 10 years? They historically do when they get scared. Is that going to help the mortgage market? Yeah. we could actually see a pickup in the US economy while we have a pretty nasty risk asset market comparatively.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2027-10-13 pending
Cole Smead Canadian Oil Sector Canadian oil stocks still have significant upside and have not topped out, as the buy side remains underweight the sector
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[15:30] Amber, you're telling me we're going to top out these oil stocks. While it's 3% of global indices and they're stomping many investments out there, no one cares, the buy side uh still very much doesn't own it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2027-10-13 pending
Cole Smead Canadian Oil Differential (Wcs Spread) The current wide Canadian oil differential (~$25) will normalize back to low-teens in the near term
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[17:00] I I think this won't be longived. Um, you know, we've said pretty publicly that we think, you know, low teens is a more of a normal spread on diffs. Um, but again, this is kind of like a near-term blowout.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2027-04-13 pending
Cole Smead European Banking Sector A wave of consolidation deals will follow the Commerzbank/UniCredit transaction across European banking
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[12:41] the Commerce Bank deal closing with Unicredit might be one of the most kind of like pivotal moments in the history of the ECB because we're going to see a tsunami of deals follow this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2027-10-13 pending
Cole Smead Multifamily REITs The multifamily rental cycle will turn positive within the next 6 to 12 months (by roughly mid-to-late 2027)
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[9:37] we could be in like the next 6 to 12 months in the turn of the rental cycle for multifamily.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-10-13 2027-10-13 pending