Brian Carney Predictions

Portfolio Manager, Mawer Investment Management

Track Brian Carney's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

5 forecasts 1 correct 4 pending

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5 forecasts

Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome

Brian Carney Credit Markets A reckoning will occur in credit markets first and feed through to broader financial markets in the near term

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[7:39] Unfortunately, I would say we're on on the verge or very close to some type of reckoning. uh and I think we'll likely see it in the credit markets first and that unfortunately may feed through to the broader financial markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-06-23 2027-06-23 pending

Brian Carney AI Hyperscaler Debt Issuance AI hyperscaler capex debt issuance will remain at approximately $750 billion or more next year, with more debt financing layered on

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[20:33] we don't think it's going to stop. So, you know, we haven't seen if we're thinking about the Canadian market, we haven't seen Meta, we haven't seen Oracle. if I'm those companies, why wouldn't you why wouldn't you go to Canada? Why wouldn't you go to Europe? Uh so and and the capex, you know, that 750 billion for this year is probably 750 if not more for next year. So there's going to be more and more of this debt financing layered on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-06-23 2027-06-23 pending

Brian Carney Corporate Credit Spreads Investors will begin demanding greater compensation (wider spreads) for corporate bond issuance as the crowding-out effect from hyperscaler debt takes hold

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[21:47] the more it becomes, whoa, am I being compensated? Like, why buy it today if they're going to come 6 months from now and I can buy it at a cheaper level? And I think we haven't seen that calculation yet, but it's coming.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-06-23 2027-06-23 pending

Brian Carney Spacex SpaceX's bond deal will price successfully (from the issuer's perspective) by Wednesday

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[26:03] assuming they price on Wednesday and the market hasn't changed my suspect is they will have a successful deal from their point of view.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-06-23 2026-06-25

Brian Carney Inflation Rate Inflation will persist and not resolve even if the Middle East conflict subsides, due to structural factors including hyperscaler spending and deglobalization

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[35:01] there's a bunch of reasons why inflation isn't going away and for people who just say well the biddles conflict is done or at least dying going down uh and therefore inflation won't be an issue. Uh I think they're missing some of the plot and it's a pretty big plot.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

In the Money 2026-06-23 2027-06-23 pending