Recession Predictions

Browse Recession market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

7 forecasts 7 commentators 0% accuracy 3 wrong 4 pending
7 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Larry McDonald Recession Recession risk will rise sharply this year and the Fed will have to cut rates.
See quote
[14:40] then all of a sudden recession risk rises sharply this year and the Fed's going to have to cut.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-04-01 2026-12-31 pending
Josef Schachter Recession The current economic cycle will be longer and more painful than the 2008 crisis
See quote
[38:37] I think we're looking at um you know a longer cycle and a more painful cycle than we did in '08.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-20 2027-12-31 pending
David Hay Recession David Hay predicts no US recession in the next six months
See quote
[19:07] Well I I the damn six months for I doubt it the next six months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-02 2026-09-02 pending
Danielle DiMartino Booth Recession The current recession will not be officially acknowledged for a few years
See quote
[28:28] I think that the recession that we're currently in might not be acknowledged for a few years, but

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-02-19 2029-02-19 pending
Mark Skousen Recession A business recession is still in place and tariffs will exacerbate the situation
See quote
[35:22] it sounds like it's still a re a business recession is still in place and I think the tariffs is is just going to exacerbate that situation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-07 2025-12-31 wrong
David Rosenberg Recession The US will experience an outright recession
See quote
[18:39] What does the surprise look like in your in your view? surprise looks like u an outright recession. The recession that didn't come in 2022 2023.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-13 2025-12-31

The US did not experience a recession in 2025. Real GDP grew 2.2% for the full year, with strong Q2 (+3.8%) and Q3 (+4.4%) growth, and Q4 slowing to just 0.7% annualized. No NBER recession was declared. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)

Gary Wagner Recession Gary Wagner believes a recession is inevitable given current economic conditions
See quote
[1:15] I believe that as things are set up now, I don't see an out a way out of not having a recession. All of these steps are taking us to that point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-04-07 2025-12-31 wrong