Mark Zandi Predictions

Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics

Track Mark Zandi's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

7 forecasts 75% accuracy 3 correct 1 wrong 3 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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7 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Mark Zandi S&P 500 The economy will avoid recession and regain traction within 6 to 12 months with monetary and fiscal stimulus.
See quote
[20:39] My baseline is the firewall will hold and we'll get to the other side of this 6 n 12 months down the road. We'll get some monetary fiscal stimulus and the economy should regain some traction. We should avoid recession.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-13 2026-10-13 pending
Mark Zandi Interest Rates Fed funds rate will reach 3% by next spring or early summer.
See quote
[24:47] the markets are expecting a 3% funds rate by next spring, early summer. That's kind of the equilibrium rate that's already priced in.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-13 2026-06-30 pending
Mark Zandi US Housing Market Home sales will see slow, steady improvement through 2026 as affordability improves.
See quote
[27:29] I think we're going to see a slow, steady improvement in home sales as affordability, while still really poor, is improving and we should see some more transactions.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-13 2026-12-31 pending
Mark Zandi Global Economy Global recession will start sometime in 2025 with odds over 50%
See quote
[2:37] I think the odds of a recession global recession starting sometime this year are over 50%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2025-12-31 wrong
Mark Zandi US Dollar The US dollar will generally trend lower
See quote
[16:26] So I think the general direction of travel here for the dollar is is down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed the dollar would 'generally trend lower' with a bearish sentiment, and the period low of $96.22 (a 4% decline from the $100.25 prediction date price) confirms the dollar did trend meaningfully lower during the prediction window, validating the directional claim.
Mark Zandi European Stocks European markets will outperform other regions
See quote
[17:58] you know, if I were bullish on one place in the world, I think it would be on on Europe.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2025-12-31

Euro Stoxx gained ~29.8% in 2025 vs S&P 500 at ~10.1%.
Mark Zandi US Housing Market US housing values will at best remain flat nationwide, with half of markets experiencing declines
See quote
[19:38] housing values at best go flat nationwide which means some markets half the markets in the country are going to experience declines.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2025-12-31

National home values are up just 0.1% (essentially flat), and West Coast/SunBelt markets are seeing declines. J.P. Morgan forecasts 0% nationally for 2026.