Jason Shapiro Predictions
Trader, Founder of Crowded Market Report
Track Jason Shapiro's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[24:12] We see one of the largest ever short positioning in TLT in history. Well, I'd be long fixed income.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[26:02] I have the long Canadian dollar is very crowded indicating the Canadian dollar has a decent chance of going down which means dollar up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[26:09] I have the euro long as very crowded indicating that there's a decent chance that the euro goes down which means dollar up
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[40:46] I think the short short dollar is a is a good idea. Um long things like the yen, long things like Canada I think are becoming good ideas here.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was bearish on the US Dollar with no specific magnitude claimed, and while the DX-Y index closed 0.2% higher on the target date, the period low of $95.55 represented a 3.5% decline from the prediction price of $98.99, demonstrating that the dollar did weaken significantly during the window even though it recovered by year-end.
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[40:46] I think the short short dollar is a is a good idea. Um long things like the yen, long things like Canada I think are becoming good ideas here.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[40:46] I think the short short dollar is a is a good idea. Um long things like the yen, long things like Canada I think are becoming good ideas here. Um Canada is the the currency that people are most short from what I can tell and it has started to act well in spite of that.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the Canadian Dollar would rise, and the period high of $0.7416 represents a 3.5% increase from the prediction date price of $0.7167, confirming the bullish prediction was correct.
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[22:50] I can't take the crypto space very seriously. Until 90% of these things go to zero.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[0:32] I think the market still has upside to to go. Yes. Um I don't know that it's going to come necessarily this minute or this day. Sorry, I just want to turn my phone. Um but I think that certainly the second half of the year, uh there's a good chance that the market's going to go higher
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the market would 'go higher' in the second half of 2025, and the period high of $6945.77 on 2025-12-26 represents a 15.3% gain from the prediction date price of $6025.17, confirming the market did indeed go higher during the specified timeframe.
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[19:25] So to me, that means positioning wise there is more juice that can push it higher.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[30:56] I like Bitcoin right now and I'm not a Bitcoiner by any sense like I say I barely know what Bitcoin is but uh as an asset um I think Bitcoin's a good player on the long side.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was bullish for a 'long position' on Bitcoin, but the asset declined 13.3% by the target date close and the period low of $80,659.81 represents a 20.2% decline from the prediction price of $100,987.14, meaning Bitcoin moved significantly against the bullish thesis during the prediction window.
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[26:52] I think the second half of the year is probably going to be a very good one... the whole game here as many people know um is the AI game right if you are looking to be long things that's the place to be long things that benefit from AI
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed AI-related stocks would perform well in the second half of 2025, with a bullish sentiment. The NDX (Nasdaq-100, heavily weighted to AI stocks) rose 15.5% by the target date and reached a period high of $26,182.10 (19.8% above the prediction date price of $21,856.33), confirming the bullish prediction was accurate.
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[23:18] I would say that here based on positioning, short gold, long short, long gold, short silver is a nice trade to me here.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was to long gold and short silver (gold outperforms silver). Gold returned 28.1% while silver returned 94%, meaning silver significantly outperformed gold, the exact opposite of the prediction.